
<table style="text-align:center"><tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="4"><em>Dependent variable:</em></td></tr>
<tr><td></td><td colspan="4" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="4">Excess mortality (backdated by 17 days)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="2"><em>OLS</em></td><td colspan="2"><em>linear</em></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="2"><em></em></td><td colspan="2"><em>mixed-effects</em></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(1)</td><td>(2)</td><td>(3)</td><td>(4)</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left">past excess mortality</td><td>0.410<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.410<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.410<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.410<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. lockdown</td><td>-0.017<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.016<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.016<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.016<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">neighbouring excess mortality</td><td>0.209<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.209<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.208<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.208<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">PM2.5 conc.</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td></td><td>0.005<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">PM10 conc.</td><td></td><td>0.003<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td></td><td>0.003<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">nitrogen monoxide conc.</td><td>0.001 (0.002)</td><td>0.002 (0.002)</td><td>0.0004 (0.002)</td><td>0.001 (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">ozone conc.</td><td>-0.022<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.022<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.026<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.025<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">carbon monoxide conc.</td><td>0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.007<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.008<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">nitrogen dioxide conc.</td><td>0.022<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>0.022<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>0.019<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>0.019<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">sulphur dioxide</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.0002 (0.001)</td><td>0.0005 (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">temperature</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">relative humidity</td><td>-0.009<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.009<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.011<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.011<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">precipitation</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. breast cancer incidence (reg.)</td><td>-0.002 (0.002)</td><td>-0.002 (0.002)</td><td>-0.008 (0.009)</td><td>-0.008 (0.009)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. colorectal cancer incidence (reg.)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.005)</td><td>0.001 (0.005)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. lung cancer incidence (reg.)</td><td>-0.002 (0.002)</td><td>-0.002 (0.002)</td><td>0.002 (0.006)</td><td>0.002 (0.006)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. diabetes (reg.)</td><td>-0.005<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.005<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.003 (0.008)</td><td>-0.003 (0.007)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. hypertension (reg.)</td><td>-0.003<sup>*</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.003<sup>*</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.004 (0.008)</td><td>-0.004 (0.007)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. bronchitis (reg.)</td><td>0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.002 (0.006)</td><td>0.002 (0.006)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. allergies (reg.)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.005 (0.005)</td><td>0.005 (0.005)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. heart cond. (reg.)</td><td>-0.002 (0.001)</td><td>-0.002 (0.001)</td><td>0.003 (0.006)</td><td>0.003 (0.006)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. smokers (reg.)</td><td>-0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.006 (0.006)</td><td>-0.006 (0.006)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. ICU beds 50km radius</td><td>-0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.003<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.003<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">cases vs tests ratio (reg.)</td><td>0.044<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.044<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.045<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.045<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">median density</td><td>0.003<sup>**</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.003<sup>**</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.002<sup>**</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.002<sup>**</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. females</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. over 65</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">over 74 conc.</td><td>0.003<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.003<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.002<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.002<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. working out of comune</td><td>-0.009<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.009<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. families over 4</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. employed</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td><td>0.001 (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. degree (over workforce)</td><td>-0.002<sup>**</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.002<sup>**</sup> (0.001)</td><td>-0.002 (0.001)</td><td>-0.002 (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">perc. low income</td><td>-0.005<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.005<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.007<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.007<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. agedcare employees</td><td>0.007<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.007<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.006<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. construction employees</td><td>0.002 (0.003)</td><td>0.002 (0.003)</td><td>0.003 (0.003)</td><td>0.003 (0.003)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. delivery employees</td><td>0.003 (0.002)</td><td>0.003 (0.002)</td><td>0.003 (0.002)</td><td>0.003 (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. education employees</td><td>0.002 (0.003)</td><td>0.002 (0.003)</td><td>-0.0003 (0.003)</td><td>-0.0002 (0.003)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. healthcare employees</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.009<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.009<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. hospitality employees</td><td>-0.024<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>-0.024<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>-0.023<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>-0.023<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. manufacturing employees (exc. meat)</td><td>0.004<sup>*</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.005<sup>*</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.005<sup>**</sup> (0.002)</td><td>0.005<sup>**</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. manufacturing employees (meat only)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.004<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. other employees</td><td>-0.012<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.012<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.013<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.013<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. retail employees</td><td>-0.006 (0.004)</td><td>-0.006 (0.004)</td><td>-0.006 (0.004)</td><td>-0.006 (0.004)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. services employees</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.004)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.004)</td><td>0.012<sup>***</sup> (0.004)</td><td>0.012<sup>***</sup> (0.004)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. transportation employees</td><td>-0.003 (0.002)</td><td>-0.003 (0.002)</td><td>-0.002 (0.002)</td><td>-0.002 (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. warehousing employees</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td><td>-0.001 (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. wholesaling employees</td><td>0.028<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>0.028<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>0.028<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td><td>0.027<sup>***</sup> (0.003)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">log. hotel beds</td><td>0.015<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.015<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.015<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.015<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">tot. length primary roads</td><td>0.016<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.016<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.017<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.017<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">past excess mort. X perc. lockdown</td><td>-0.025<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.025<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.025<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.025<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">past excess mort. X neighb. excess mort.</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.0001)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.0001)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.0001)</td><td>0.010<sup>***</sup> (0.0001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">neighb. excess mort. X perc. lockdown</td><td>-0.031<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.031<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.032<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td><td>-0.031<sup>***</sup> (0.002)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">past excess mort. X neighb. excess mort. X perc. lockdown</td><td>-0.001<sup>**</sup> (0.0003)</td><td>-0.001<sup>**</sup> (0.0003)</td><td>-0.001<sup>**</sup> (0.0003)</td><td>-0.001<sup>**</sup> (0.0003)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Constant</td><td>0.013<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.013<sup>***</sup> (0.001)</td><td>0.009<sup>**</sup> (0.004)</td><td>0.009<sup>**</sup> (0.004)</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left">Observations</td><td>1,112,521</td><td>1,112,521</td><td>1,112,521</td><td>1,112,521</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">R<sup>2</sup></td><td>0.355</td><td>0.355</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Adjusted R<sup>2</sup></td><td>0.355</td><td>0.355</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Log Likelihood</td><td></td><td></td><td>-1,372,881.000</td><td>-1,372,884.000</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Akaike Inf. Crit.</td><td></td><td></td><td>2,745,872.000</td><td>2,745,878.000</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Bayesian Inf. Crit.</td><td></td><td></td><td>2,746,528.000</td><td>2,746,534.000</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Residual Std. Error (df = 1112468)</td><td>0.831</td><td>0.831</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">F Statistic (df = 52; 1112468)</td><td>11,794.850<sup>***</sup></td><td>11,794.830<sup>***</sup></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left"><em>Note:</em></td><td colspan="4" style="text-align:right"><sup>*</sup>p<0.1; <sup>**</sup>p<0.05; <sup>***</sup>p<0.01</td></tr>
</table>
